阶梯发展论 （节选）

六月回到美国后，着手导师的项目工作闲时，也拿起了从中国带回的三本书阅读，分别是亚当斯密的《道德情操论》、桑德尔的《公正》以及彼得蒂尔的《从0到1》，内容就不细谈了，但是都应该是所属领域的经典，值得参阅。

在读到彼得蒂尔的《从0到1》中，所讲述主要是对于初创者，特别是科技领域的领悟，当然还有对投资的理解，里面印象最深刻的就是书中一直提到的问题：“什么重要问题上你与别人观点不同？”，从一个反思中，我们重新审视我们习以为常的事物与规律。其实这个问题在最初辩论中我就经常碰到，如何打破常规的去思考，到了投资中也是如此，如何“反人性”的去判别与决策。无论是对于创业者还是普通人也都需要有这样的反思，因为我们的进步往往就来源于这样的“秘密”。

书中最后作者举出也提出了四个关于进步发展的模型：

蒂尔在书中罗列了交替、稳定、灭绝与腾飞四种发展模型，其中他本人针对科技领域特别是互联网发展最为推崇第四种模型。

就像文中所言，我们要怀着反思的态度看问题，实际上我认为蒂尔针对他的经历与投资经验看确实第四种作为符合，因为无论是paypal还是特斯拉等都是科技时代腾飞的宠儿，不过我这里综合四种模型，更经过自己的体会与研究，提出“阶梯发展模型”。

（用excel作图粗糙地方请见谅）

我也是用时间代表横轴，进步代表纵轴，我认为更多的事物发展过程更如同一个阶梯，纵横发展而上的。

1.在“横”的阶段占据更多的时间，呈现我们更像第一种模型，是交替上下起伏的，但是进步的空间不是很大，甚至可能是衰退的。

2.从大的宏观角度看如同第二个稳定模型，只是阶梯是不那么平滑规则的但是却螺旋上升前进的,并且呈加速度可能性更大。

3.在某些局部区域，特别是在“大进步”，或者说“纵”结束后，出现灭绝断崖是退步也是会“自然”出现的。

4.最后在“纵”中，虽然时间所占的不多，但是从进步发展空间上确实远超过“横”带给我们的，这也是所谓“三年不开张，开张吃三年”的意思，很多都是数倍甚至百倍的力量。

为了举证我的观点，我拿出最近比较火的中国A股的上证指数举例：

很多人说中国股市不能反映中国的经济，但是我个人认为股市依旧是中国的经济晴雨表，其本质蕴含的道理就是我今天提出的“阶梯发展”，在25年中，正是中国改革开放后，走向市场经济不断完善，GDP不断发展，但是过程中交替上升反复的过程，表现出了非常明显的“纵”与“横”的阶梯态势，但是整体又是上升的。

不仅是中国股市，美国股市甚至世界经济都是如此，当然这里所谈不仅是经济问题，而是一个事物发展问题，在一个领域经过千百年的变化也可以大概理解是这样的阶梯发展过程。当然这里我排除有个别国家或者领域最后消亡的可能性，但是不可能用一个模型代表全部，个别案例去除，绝大多数的情况，更符合这一论点。

结论启迪：

通过阶梯发展论我们能得到点什么呢？我们人生最大的投资其实就是我们自己的时间与精力，所以掌握好正确的发展论是至关重要的。

1.事物大致都是向上的，但是需要时间的积累才能完成量变到质变，所以类似“1万小时”的积累是基础。没有累计复利而只是短时间的爆发，长期来看都是“收益”很差的投资。

2.任何的趋势不是一撮而就的，无论是“横”还是“纵”都有时间过程，要学会顺势而为，逆向思考。

3.风险永远存在，特别是在疯狂的时候记住后面往往是一场灾难。

4.抓住机遇，“风口”力量与横向时期完全不同，质变过程是短时间，但是大空间的机会。

IBM finacial project

BUSN 506 Project

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

Jian Jiang

Background:

The International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is an American multinational technology and consulting corporation, with headquarters in Armonk, New York. IBM manufactures and markets computer hardware and software, and offers infrastructure, hosting and consulting services in areas ranging from mainframe computers to nanotechnology.

 

Over the past decade, it has steadily shifted its business mix by exiting commoditizing businesses such as PCs, hard disk drives and DRAMs and focusing on higher-value, more profitable businesses such as business intelligence, data analytics, business continuity, security, cloud computing, virtualization and green solutions, resulting in a higher quality revenue stream and higher profit margins.

Ginni Rometty

IBM, CEO

Headquarters:  Armonk, New York, U.S.

Area served:    170 countries

Financial Highlights

International Business Machines Corporation and Subsidiary Companies

Meanwhile, I use the Google and Yahoo to search the more and detail financial information of IBM, so I can calculate and analysis the major ratios of IBM.

Below as the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow in IBM:

 

 

Balance Sheet

Income Statement

Cash Flow

 

This is the mainly data in IBM, and I will calculate the ratios and compare the ratios with 2014 and 2013.

Current Ratio

2013:128%

2014:125%

Quick Ratio

2013:122%

2014:119%

Cash Ratio

2013:28%

2014:21%

Gross Margin

2013:49%

2014:50%

Profit Margin

2013:17%

2014:13%

After Tax ROE

2013:72%

2014:101%

Conclusion

I calculate the major ratios, and I also try to find some ratios in this industry ,I can find the current ratio and quick ratio in industry are 1.4 and 1.2, and we can see the IBM these two ratios are 1.25 and 1.2. Although the IBM is one of the greatest company in this industry, but the effective is not the greatest.

And we can find the cash ratio and other data in cash flow is worse than before, cash ratio is decline 28% to 21% from 2013 to 2014. The gross margin is nearly unchanged, and profit margin is down, but the tax ROE is up than 2013.

We all know IBM is the Big Blue in technology industry, but it is not means IBM can be strong forever, I also analysis the stock price for IBM, in spite of the famous investor Warren Buffett have bought lots of IBM stock ,but from now on it doesn’t look like a good choice.

Certainly, I don’t think IBM will worse, some finical ratios are still better than industry and its rivals. IBM still have lots of valuable patents, and IBM can and did sale some profileless parts in IBM, such as IBM sold the business of computers and routers to Lenovo and other companies. IBM can focus on more capital and human resource to research and market the business of big data and consulting. I believe IBM the finical ratios will be better than last year, and maybe this is good choice to invest the IBM in 2015.

4/18/2015

Computer languages I need to learn

     In the computer class, we are learning the computer languages in this semster,there are Java, C++, php and shell.

No matter what major or job , I think it is a good skill and choice which you need to learn . If you want to konw about computer ,you need to konw how to chat with computer, so that computer languanges are neccesary.

and I find and list the main programming languangs below:

Java

IMAGE: MASHABLE COMPOSITE. IMAGE: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

What it is: Java is a class-based, object-oriented programming language developed by Sun Microsystems in the 1990s. It’s one of the most in-demand programming languages, a standard for enterprise software, web-based content, games and mobile apps, as well as the Androidoperating system. Java is designed to work across multiple software platforms, meaning a program written on Mac OS X, for example, could also run on Windows.

C++

IMAGE: MASHABLE COMPOSITE. IMAGE: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

What it is: C++ is an intermediate-level language with object-oriented programming features, originally designed to enhance the C language. C++ powers major software like Firefox, Winampand Adobe programs. It’s used to develop systems software, application software, high-performance server and client applications and video games.

PHP

IMAGE: MASHABLE COMPOSITE. IMAGE: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

What it is: PHP (Hypertext Processor) is a free, server-side scripting language designed for dynamic websites and app development. It can be directly embedded into an HTML source document rather than an external file, which has made it a popular programming language for web developers. PHP powers more than 200 million websites, including WordPress, Digg andFacebook.

Shell

A Unix shell is a command-line interpreter or shell that provides a traditional user interface for the Unixoperating system and for Unix-like systems. Users direct the operation of the computer by entering commands as text for a command line interpreter to execute, or by creating text scripts of one or more such commands. Users typically interact with a Unix shell using a terminal emulator, however, direct operation via serial hardware connections, or networking session, are common for server systems.

WE are going to the Atlanta Zoo

In the end of the break , I took my nephew, we went to the Atlanta Zoo . We saw the giant panda , tigers, and lots of birds which I extrmliy don’t understand. And my nephew and me rode the little train in the Atlanta Zoo.

I havn’t been to the zoo for more than 5 years, for this time, I have chance to feel it agian ,although the most of the animals I have seen them before, but when this animal in the different names(Chinese & English), you also feel that is new sence.

I always remeber that I learned an English song in the middle school ,the lyrics is “Where are we going, where are we going? We are going to the zoo. Zoo, zoo, zoo, we are going to the zoo!”.

Spring Break

This is the first spring break which I have enjoyed , because I have no this break in China. In spite of spring break just have 9 days , it is enough that I have a trip with my firends , so we planed go to Selma , and this year is the 50th year to celebrate the Selma March, and forcuanatley we can meet Obama speech in this town.

And on thruesday , I join my nephew kindergarton party, this is the world party ,there are 8 contries themes party, so we can feel the chatacter of countries and their food.

Amercia is a internatinal country ,so we need cover and maitain more and different cultures and races , so we still can say we are strong and great!

at last I paste one part of Obama speech in Selma:

For everywhere in this country, there are first steps to be taken, there’s new ground to cover, there are more bridges to be crossed.  And it is you, the young and fearless at heart, the most diverse and educated generation in our history, who the nation is waiting to follow.

Because Selma shows us that America is not the project of any one person.  Because the single-most powerful word in our democracy is the word “We.”  “We The People.”  “We Shall Overcome.”  “Yes We Can.”  (Applause.)  That word is owned by no one.  It belongs to everyone.  Oh, what a glorious task we are given, to continually try to improve this great nation of ours.

Fifty years from Bloody Sunday, our march is not yet finished, but we’re getting closer.  Two hundred and thirty-nine years after this nation’s founding our union is not yet perfect, but we are getting closer.  Our job’s easier because somebody already got us through that first mile.  Somebody already got us over that bridge.  When it feels the road is too hard, when the torch we’ve been passed feels too heavy, we will remember these early travelers, and draw strength from their example, and hold firmly the words of the prophet Isaiah:  “Those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength.  They will soar on [the] wings like eagles.  They will run and not grow weary.  They will walk and not be faint.”

WeChat Accounts editor and how to edit your life

I set up the first college magazine when I was 20 years old , I was the general editor in this project, and a lots of people said you can’t do this ,and it is meanless for me.  In the truth ,I think thet are right ,because I am not a professinal editor , and it was useless for me in that time. But I think everything has its reasons, we just need to learn how to link them ,as edit the articel and pictures.

So the last semster in my undergraduate life, I tried to do table advertisement in universitties, and fortunatley I sucessed, then I set up my first company. Maybe the others think it was very cool and it can  earn money ,but not me. I just want to edit my idea,and try to do it ,this “article” is right or not.

In 2013, Wechat was porpolar in China ,and more than 700 million poeple use this APP now. But in that time ,people just think it was a good messager for people, like WantsApp or Line. But I found that WeChat account would be a new market and revolution for people lives. So I set up the second company — VAT company, it is moblie internet comapy, we help people to set up WeChat accounts and related services, we also to do O2O and other things.

Now I am in USA and to do my master career, but I often take time to do the business plans and edit some articles. Some of my firends tell me I just waste time. But I think life is like a blank sheet of paper, we need to make it waoderful.

At last it will spring day soon ,and make the best wishes for all the peole help and teach me.

share a link to edit Wechat :  http://www.weixinbianjiqi.com/#

Linux and some basical commands

This week and last semester we have learned some knowledage of Linux and its commands. Tell the truth , I am very curious it but not good at it . We konw the human word, and what is binary ,hexdecial and ASCII, and now I record some bacially commands of Linux. After days , maybe we will still record and learn it .

Linux Commands

Contents[Hide]

• • A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

Here is a list of basic linux commands. This list of linux commands is not complete as there are many more linux commands available. However, it should make a good start for a beginner or intermediate linux administrator / linux user. All linux commands in this list include examples to demonstrate how the actual linux command works. If you do not find an answer to your question on this page or you need extra help, feel free to ask us on our new Linux Forum. We will be more than happy to help you with your Linux questions there.

1. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

A

• alias – create names or abbreviations for commands
• apropos – search the manual page names and descriptions
• at [man page] – queue, examine or delete jobs for later execution

B

• bc [man page] – An arbitrary precision calculator language

C

• cal – displays a calendar
• cat [man page] – concatenate files and print on the standard output
• cd – change directory
• chgrp [man page] – change group ownership
• chmod [man page] – change file access permissions
• cksum [man page] – checksum and count the bytes in a file
• cp [man page] – copy files and directories
• csplit [man page] – split a file into sections determined by context lines

D

• date [man page] – print or set the system date and time
• dd [man page] – convert and copy a file
• du [man page] – estimate file space usage

E

• egrep [man page] – print lines matching a pattern
• export – set an environment variable

F

---

• fgrep [man page] – print lines matching a pattern
• find [man page] – search for files in a directory hierarchy
• fold [man page] – wrap each input line to fit in specified width

G

• grep [man page] – print lines matching a pattern

H

---

• head [man page] – output the first part of files

I

J

• join [man page] – join lines of two files on a common field

K

L

• logrotate [man page] – rotates, compresses, and mails system logs
• ls [man page] – list directory contents

M

• mkdir [man page] – make directories
• mv [man page] – move (rename) files
• mount [man page] – mount a file system

N

• nl [man page] – number lines of files

O

• od [man page] – dump files in octal and other formats

P

• pwd [man page] – print name of current/working directory

Q

R

• rgrep [man page] – print lines matching a pattern
• rm [man page] – remove files or directories

S

• scp – secure copy (remote file copy program)
• ssh – OpenSSH SSH client (remote login program)

T

• tail [man page] – output the last part of files
• tar [man page] – The GNU version of the tar archiving utility
• tee [man page] – read from standard input and write to standard output and files
• time [man page] – run programs and summarize system resource usage
• touch [man page] – change file timestamps

V

• vim – Vi IMproved, a programmers text editor

W

• watch [man page] – execute a program periodically, showing output fullscreen
• wc [man page] – print newline, word, and byte counts for each file
• whoami [man page] – print effective userid

X

Y

• yes [man page] – output a string repeatedly until killed

Z

ASCII & Chinese Character

The human beings use our languages , such as Enlish or Chinese, but we konw computers which don’t konw what is  English or Chinese, so they use ASCII, so what is ASCII, and how to convert to English and Chinese.

In this blog, I will show how to do it :

ASCII (ⁱ/ˈæski/ ass-kee), abbreviated from American Standard Code for Information Interchange,^[1] is a character-encoding scheme. Originally based on the English alphabet, it encodes 128 specified characters into 7-bit binary integers as shown by the ASCII chart on the right.^[2] The characters encoded are numbers 0 to9, lowercase letters a to z, uppercase letters A to Z, basic punctuation symbols,control codes that originated with Teletype machines, and a space. For example, lowercase j would become binary 1101010 and decimal 106.

ASCII codes represent text in computers, communications equipment, and other devices that use text. Most modern character-encoding schemes are based on ASCII, though they support many additional characters.

How About Chinese Characters?
They are also formed by dots.

Using 10-key PAD to Input Chinese

Simple & Easy

English Character = 1 ASCII code

Character Width = 1 byte

Chinese Character = 2 ASCII codes

Character Width = 2 bytes

HexaDecimal System is used
to “represent” BINARY numbers
for simplicity.

虏间璸, 硄盽А “せ秈计”  “秈计”.
ㄒ:
4F = 01001111
B3 = 10110011
……. etc.

Binary and Hexadecimal

As we all konw that the number is the bascially in the information, for the human , we used to count number 1 to 10, use denical number. But for computer , they just use 0 and 1, 0 means off , 1 stands for on. I think it is most original and eay way to count or explain all the data.

So this week , we have learnd how understand and use binary and Hexadecimal.

Binary:

• A bit may be illustrated with the following box
• When it is empty, it represent a zero
• When it is filled, it represents a one

Hexadecimal:

• In mathematics and computer science, hexadecimal (also base 16, or hex) is a positional numeral system with a radix, or base, of 16
• It uses sixteen distinct symbols, most often the symbols 0–9 to represent values zero to nine, and A, B, C, D, E, F (or alternatively a–f) to represent values ten to fifteen

• Since decimals use 16 symbols, its base is 16
  • The digit from right is called 1s
  • The second digit from the right is called 16s
  • The third digit from the right is called 256s
  • The fourth digit from the right is called 4096s

Convert from decimal to hexadecimal:

1. Divide the decimal by 2, place the remainder (if less than 10, use that digit;’otherwise, convert the number to A..F) at the right most position
2. Divide the quotient obtained in the previous step by 2, place the remainder (if less than 10, use that digit;’otherwise, convert the number to A..F) at the position to left to the previous position
3. Repeat step 2 until the quotient becomes 0

Data & Information

I have learned to understand computing and information system in the second smester, I don’t think I am a clever student to konw it .

But I am very appreciate my teachers and classmates, give me this chance to try to challenge by myself. I learned how to use compyters before, but I failed , because that was just data for me .

Now , I try my best to learn and menory this data ,and process it , then this data can trasnfer to information for me. Stduying and konwledage is a happiness of evryone, for grades, but laso for life, the colorful and woderful life.

So ,I hope and believe this is a woderful travel in my life!